A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
