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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly serves as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who oversaw the largest improvement wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or just the greatest upset.

However the latest competition is distinctly different. The list of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions falling away and longtime also-rans improving in unison. During an normal year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's facing several other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the projected vote should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to conjure big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, he would be the runaway choice. Yet this is not a typical campaign!

The area where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and experience, he hired newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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